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Teacher Shortage, Protests Complicate Educator Pay Dynamics

Across the country, teachers and school districts alike are grappling with the latest political and economic realities of educator pay. 
 
The dynamics have been complicated by both the recent national teacher protest movement that’s emboldened the workforce to demand higher salaries and better conditions, and the steadily brewing shortage of educators that’s forced many school districts to confront the money issue with more urgency.

The National Education Association’s latest salary data estimates that the average public school teacher in the U.S. saw a 2% pay raise over the past two years since the national Red4Ed protest movement spread across the U.S.

At the same time, the number of teacher vacancies have exceeded 100,000 jobs in the past four years, said Elaine Weiss of the Economic Policy Institute. 

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Russian Court Extends Detention of former US Marine Accused of Espionage 

A Russian court has extended by more than two months the detention of a former U.S. Marine accused of espionage.

In a closed hearing in Moscow’s Lefortovo Court Friday, the presiding judge prolonged Paul Whelan’s detention until October 29th — the latest phase in an eight-month investigation by the country’s Federal Security Services, or FSB, that appears to be grinding toward presentation of formal charges by year’s end. 

“I am innocent of any charges resulting from this political kidnapping, No crime ever occurred,” said Whelan, 49, in a statement hurriedly read as police forced journalists from the courtroom following the judge’s ruling. 

“The latest that we’ve seen from the investigation plays into the hands of the defense,” Whelan’s Russian lawyer, Vladimir Zherebenkov, said after the ruling. “Paul’s version that this crime was merely a provocation is justified in our view. Investigators think otherwise.”

If convicted, Whelan faces the possibility of 10- to 20 years in prison.

Entering the courthouse in handcuffs and led by masked police, the former Marine complained of rough treatment by authorities despite health issues. 

“They are dragging me along even though I have a medical condition which prohibits it,” said Whelan.  

In the initial open phase of the hearing, Whelan said he was in “great pain” and had repeatedly told the prosecutor about abuse and injuries at the hands of FSB and prison officials. Whelan said that despite his complaints, no action was taken. 

“The prosecutor is allowing unlawful acts that violate human rights, acts that violate Russian law by the FSB,” Whelan said. “The prosecutor’s office knows about this and has done nothing. Therefore she needs to go.” 

The judge rejected Whelan’s request but paused proceedings so that a doctor could conduct a brief medical examination.  

Whelan’s lawyers later clarified that the former Marine was considering possible surgery in a Moscow hospital for a hernia in his groin. 

The U.S. Embassy in Russia said it has asked the Russian Foreign minister “for immediate consular access” to meet with Whelan and “to speak with him about his serious health allegations.”

Whelan’s complaints also extended to the court proceedings themselves. 

“There’s no judicial process here, no due process,” said Whelan, noting prison officials had informed him of the court hearing just two hours prior. 

“I was not given notice for this hearing. I have not seen my attorneys for more than a month for consultation. I did not have an opportunity to talk to them or look at their documents,” he added.

He also questioned the abilities of his court-appointed Russian translator and sharply criticized the closed-door nature of the hearings — a standard practice for espionage cases, say Russian officials. 

“This is part of the cover up,” said Whelan, as the judge ordered journalists out of the room. 

Whelan, who in addition to American citizenship, holds passports from Canada, Ireland, and Britain, was arrested by FSB agents in December of last year in a downtown Moscow hotel, after allegedly accepting classified materials on a computer ‘thumb’ flash drive.  

Whelan has repeatedly denied the charges, insisting he was in Moscow for a friend’s wedding and had accepted the drive from a Russian acquaintance without knowing or ever viewing its contents.

The case has proven an additional irritant to already strained relations between the United States and Russia over larger issues such as Syria, Ukraine, and Moscow’s alleged interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.  

Whelan has called on U.S. President Donald Trump to intervene on his behalf, asking the American leader “to tweet your intentions” about a case that Whelan has labeled “the Moscow goat rodeo.” 

While U.S. officials, including National Security Adviser John Bolton, have criticized Russia for providing scant evidence of Whelan’s wrongdoing, they have also stopped short of proclaiming his innocence, according to Whelan’s family members. 

Whelan had a message Friday for those following his case.

“Only listen to what I say. Do not trust anyone else.” 

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Billionaire David Koch, Conservative Donor Dies at 79

David H. Koch, executive vice president of Koch Industries Inc. and a long-time philanthropist, has died at age 79.
 
His older brother, Charles, announced the death on Friday, saying, “It is with a heavy heart that I now must inform you of David’s death.”
 
David Koch, a billionaire who lived in New York City, was the Libertarian Party’s vice presidential candidate in 1980. He was a generous donor to conservative political causes as well as educational, medical and cultural groups.
 
The Koch brothers were best known for a vast political network they built that became popularly known as the “Kochtopus” for its far-reaching tentacles in support of conservative causes. The brothers founded the anti-tax, small government group Americans for Prosperity.
 
“I was taught from a young age that involvement in the public discourse is a civic duty,” David Koch wrote in a 2012 op-ed in the New York Post. “Each of us has a right- indeed, a responsibility, at times – to make his or her views known to the larger community in order to better form it as a whole. While we may not always get what we want, the exchange of ideas betters the nation in the process.”
 
After battling prostate cancer for 20 years, he told a reporter following the 2012 Republican convention that he was thinking about what he will someday leave behind.
 
“I like to engage where my part makes a difference,” he told The Weekly Standard. “I have a point of view. When I pass on, I want people to say he did a lot of good things, he made a real difference, he saved a lot of lives in cancer research.”
 
David Koch donated $100 million in 2007 to create the David H. Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He also gave millions to Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York City, the M.D. Anderson Cancer in Houston, and other institutions.
 
The Smithsonian’s National Museum of Natural History named in his honor a wing dedicated to the story of human evolution over 6 million years. David Koch donated $15 million to fund the 15,000 square-foot hall.
 
“The program has the power to influence the way we view our identity as humans, not only today, but for generations to come,” he said in a statement at the time. 
 
David Koch, an engineer trained at MIT, joined Koch Industries in 1970, and served on its board. He also served as chief executive officer of Koch Chemical Technology Group, LLC, a Koch subsidiary. He retired from the company in 2018
 
Charles and David Koch, each with an estimated net worth of $50.5 billion, tied in fourth place in 2012 on Forbes 500 list of the nation’s richest men.
 
Two of the Koch brothers, Frederick and Bill Koch, sued the other two, claiming in a 1998 trial that they were cheated out of more than $1 billion when they sold their stake in Koch Industries back in 1983. David and Bill Koch are twins.
 
The dispute stemmed from a falling out three years earlier when Bill Koch criticized Charles’ management of the company, and with Frederick’s support, tried to gain control of the company’s board of directors. After the takeover move failed, the board fired Bill as an executive. Bill and Frederick Koch and other dissident stockholders sold their interests, and the brothers later sued claiming the company withheld crucial information that would have led to a higher sale price.
 
Bill and Frederick lost their case, but the lengthy public trial offered a rare behind-the-scenes glimpse at the Koch family.    
 
The Kochs’ father, Fred Koch, guessed early _ before two of his boys were out of diapers and before two were even born – that wealth might split his family apart.
 
“It will be yours to do with what you will,” the father wrote in a 1936 letter to his two oldest sons. “It may be either a blessing or a curse.”
 
David Koch and his wife, Julia, have three children.
 

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UN: Conflict Robs Nearly 2 Million Children of Education in Africa

The U.N. children’s agency reports schools across West and Central Africa are being targeted by insurgent groups. It says attacks and threats of violence have forced more than 9,000 schools across eight countries to close since the end of 2017, robbing nearly 2 million children of an education.  

UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador Muzoon Almellehan, who recently returned from Mali, says the children she met live in fear of their lives and their futures. 

“Many schools have been attacked, which resulted in many children out of school, which affects the future of those countries,” she said. “And if we do not act now, rather than tomorrow, we cannot help those children to have access to education, which is a fundamental human right.”  

FILE PHOTO: A banner with the UNICEF logo is seen hanging on a makeshift school at an internally displaced persons camp on the outskirts of Maiduguri, northeast Nigeria, June 6, 2017.

Almellehan is a Syrian refugee who was forced to flee her war-torn country in 2013. She says the education she received in a refugee camp gave her hope, and positively impacted her future. She wants to provide that same opportunity to other children in dire circumstances.

Children who have no education are vulnerable to abuse, manipulation and exploitation, Almellehan told VOA.

“Sometimes they are exploited sexually, or maybe … they get married at such a young age.  Maybe they will also be in child labor, and the most dangerous when they can go for recruitment by those terrorist groups,” she said. “So, those terrorist groups can exploit them, can use them as child soldiers, and this can destroy their future and their lives.”  

UNICEF is working with authorities and communities to support alternative learning opportunities. These include community learning centers, radio school programs and faith-based learning initiatives.

The agency has appealed for $221 million to pay for educational and psychosocial support and care for school children, and for other essential programs in the region. However, it has received less than 30 percent of that amount. 

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China-Vietnam Maritime Standoff: 3 Scenarios for the Next Stage

A standoff between Chinese and Vietnamese vessels in the South China Sea has intensified with the return this month of China’s oil survey boat – followed by a reprimand from U.S. natural security adviser John Bolton.

While Sino-Vietnamese spats regarding the disputed sea have surfaced regularly since the 1970s, this one is lasting longer and with little of the problem-solving diplomacy that often follows an upset. The standoff began in June when a Chinese energy survey ship, the Haiyang Dizhi 8, began patrolling waters near Vanguard Bank, 352 kilometers off the coast of southeastern Vietnam. Vietnam operates an undersea energy exploration platform near Vanguard Bank.

China and Vietnam both claim western parts of the 3.5 million-square-kilometer sea. China is militarily and economically stronger than Vietnam.

Here are three scenarios for an outcome to the Vanguard Bank standoffs:

More players, more escalation

China’s vessel may stay near Vanguard Bank or get backup, especially if foreign governments level too much criticism on Beijing.

“China’s recent escalation of efforts to intimidate others out of developing resources in the South China Sea is disturbing,” Bolton tweeted on Tuesday. “The United States stands firmly with those who oppose coercive behavior and bullying tactics which threaten regional peace and security.”

FILE – A ship of the Chinese Coast Guard (top) is seen near a vessel of the Vietnam Marine Guard, in the South China Sea, about 210 km (130 miles) off the shore of Vietnam, May 14, 2014.

Australian media reports say two days later, Australia’s prime minister, speaking in Hanoi, said Chinese neighbors should resist “coercion.” 

Dangers of tough messaging

Messages such as these, if they get any tougher, could drive China to increase its show of strength toward Vietnam, said Yun Sun, East Asia Program senior associate at the Stimson Center research group in Washington.

China says the decades-old maritime dispute, the biggest in Asia, should be settled among the Asian claimants rather than outside countries. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan also claim parts of the same resource-rich contested sea. To keep up relations, China is helping some of the claimants economically.

The U.S. government regularly sends naval vessels into the sea to check China’s expansion.

“If that is indeed the plan (for the U.S. government) to support Vietnam’s position, I don’t think the Chinese will stand aside,” Sun said. “I think it will escalate.”

FILE – The U.S. aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan is anchored off Manila Bay, Philippines, Aug. 7, 2019, for a port call after sailing through the disputed South China Sea amid new territorial flare-ups involving China and rival claimant states.

Stormy weather

South China Sea claimants have cited weather before in quitting standoffs with other countries. In June 2012, Philippine leaders cited stormy weather as a reason for withdrawing two coast guard ships from a shoal disputed by China. 

“Weather is always a good excuse,” said Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow with the Singapore Institute of International Affairs. 

Other events may give China a convenient reason to retreat, too. The Chinese oil survey vessel had left Vanguard Bank by early August as top Chinese leaders met near Beijing for an annual conference. The vessel returned after leaders had hashed over foreign policy this year, Sun said.

Party-to-party negotiations

The two countries periodically ease disputes through meetings between envoys from the ruling communist party of each side. Those informal encounters often build enough goodwill to allow calm after an incident, yet without a formal resolution that would require tougher talks between officials.

“The old tried and true third scenario is that party-to-party ties would see an envoy go,” said Carl Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at The University of New South Wales in Australia. To this end, he said, “Vietnam has repeatedly made full court press on every possible channel.”

The two sides normally wait until an incident has lasted a week or two before one proposes party-level talks, Oh said. Then the party representatives would usually resolve the issue within another month, he said.

“I think at some point there will be some sort of face saving for both sides after the party channels are activated,” Oh said.

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New Zealand Urged To End ‘Racist’ Immigration Policy

Human rights advocates have urged lawmakers in New Zealand to drop regulations preventing the resettlement of refugees from Africa and the Middle East unless they already have family members living in the country.  

The measures were introduced by the previous center-right government in 2010, due in part to security concerns as New Zealand focused on facilitating immigration from Asia.

Campaigners say the policy is discriminatory and undermines the integrity of a nation that has been praised for its response to deadly mosque attacks in March, when a lone gunman murdered 51 people and wounded dozens more in the city of Christchurch. Refugees from Syria and Somalia were among the victims.

FILE – A flower tribute is seen outside Al Noor mosque after an attack by a suspected white supremacist during Friday prayers on March 15, in Christchurch, New Zealand, March 27, 2019.

Rights groups have filed a petition on the so-called “family link” immigration rules for Middle Eastern and African refugees to a parliamentary committee, which is reviewing the measures.  

Some lawmakers said the regulations are racist, but New Zealand’s deputy prime minister, Winston Peters, disagreed.

“Well, it is hardly racist,” he told TVNZ. “How could it possibly be racist when all the ones coming in are brown or black? How could that possibly be racist? None of these refugee countries have said that New Zealand is racist. That is why they are queuing up to come here — because we are not.”

The current immigration policy does not apply to people who apply for asylum in New Zealand, although the isolated South Pacific island nation has few migrants seeking asylum compared to other developed countries.

The government in Wellington has announced plans to increase by 500 the number of refugees it takes in each year, to 1,500, beginning in the year 2020.

New Zealand has a population of about 4.7 million people.

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Navalny Released from Jail, Predicts Bigger Opposition Protests 

Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny on Friday used his first statement after being released from jail to predict that opposition to Russian President Vladimir Putin and protests against the authorities would only grow.

Navalny, who tries to garner popular support by exposing what he says is appalling official corruption, was speaking minutes after being freed from prison where he had served 30 days for encouraging a protest calling for free elections.

“Now we see that lies and fraud are not enough for them. It’s not enough for them to ban candidates from an election. They deliberately want to arrest dozens and to beat up hundreds. … This shows that there is no support for this regime. They feel this and they are afraid,” Navalny told reporters.

“I have no doubt that despite genuine acts of intimidation and terror that are happening now as random people are being arrested that this wave (of protests) will increase, and this regime will seriously regret what it has done,” he said.

Call for demonstrations

The 43-year-old lawyer and activist was jailed last month after calling for people to demonstrate in central Moscow over the exclusion of opposition candidates from a local election in the Russian capital next month.

The election, though local, is seen as a dry run for a national parliamentary election due in 2021.

The authorities’ refusal to register a slew of opposition candidates, including some of Navalny’s allies, on technical grounds has triggered the biggest sustained protest movement in Russia since 2011-2013, when protesters took to the streets against perceived electoral fraud.

Police have briefly detained more than 2,000 people, launched criminal cases against around a dozen people for mass disorder, handed short jail terms to almost Navalny’s entire entourage and used force to disperse what they said were illegal protests.

No ‘yellow vests’

Putin said this week that authorities were handling the situation in line with the law and that he didn’t want “yellow vest” protests of the kind that have sprung up in France.

The ruling United Russia party’s popularity rating is at its lowest since 2011, and Putin’s own personal rating has also declined because of discontent over falling living standards.

However, at well over 60%, it is still high compared to many other world leaders. Putin, who first came to power in 1999 and is now 66, won re-election last year on a landslide with a six-year term that ends in 2024.

Navalny on Friday thanked people for taking to the streets and lauded what he said was the bravery of those opposition candidates excluded from the election.

“They are doing their best. And in them we see real new opposition,” he said. “And I am very happy about it.”
 

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US-China Trade War is Good News for Some Countries

The continuing trade war between the U.S. and China may be causing businesses in both countries extreme anxiety, but the trade dispute is good news for businesses in other countries as many companies have or are moving their manufacturing away from China. VOA’s Elizabeth Lee has the details on why Vietnam is attractive to one company in Southern California.
 

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North Korea to US: Ready for ‘Dialogue or Confrontation’

North Korea warned the United States Friday it is “ready for dialogue or confrontation,” stressing it can be “America’s biggest threat” for a long time to come.

In a message on the Korean Central News Agency, North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho also said it would be a “miscalculation” if Washington imposed more sanctions on Pyongyang.

It is the latest indication North Korea may not resume talks soon, despite Pyongyang hinting it would return to dialogue following the latest round of U.S.-South Korean military drills, which ended this week.

Promise in a letter

U.S. President Donald Trump says North Korean leader Kim Jong Un promised him in a personal letter to stop missile launches and start negotiations as soon as the joint exercises ended.

The exercises ended Tuesday. But instead of resuming talks, North Korea has complained the drills happened at all. It has also expressed displeasure with South Korea’s recent acquisition of U.S. fighter jets.

“Dialogue accompanied by military threats is of no interest to us,” North Korea’s foreign ministry said in a statement Wednesday.

Stephen Biegun, the top U.S. envoy for North Korea, confirmed Tuesday that he had not heard from North Korean officials.

“Regarding restart of those negotiations, we are prepared to engage as soon as we hear from our counterparts in North Korea,” Biegun said on a visit to Seoul.

Deadline to be more flexible

North Korea has given the U.S. an end of year deadline to become more flexible in the nuclear talks. Pyongyang wants Washington to provide sanctions relief and security guarantees. The Trump administration has said it is not willing to provide sanctions relief until Kim agrees to give up his entire nuclear weapons program.

North Korea has conducted eight missile launches since early May, an outpouring of anger over what it considers the U.S. and South Korea’s hostile policies.

Trump, who wants to continue the talks, says he has “no problem” with the launches, noting they cannot reach the United States.

Critics say that approach virtually ensures Kim will continue launching short-range missiles, which can reach all of South Korea.

North Korea is prohibited from any ballistic missile activity by United Nations Security Council resolutions.

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MIT to Review Donations, Apologizes for Jeffrey Epstein Ties 

Massachusetts Institute of Technology President Rafael Reif said Thursday that the elite university would review its process for accepting donations after taking about $800,000 from foundations controlled by financier Jeffrey Epstein, who committed suicide earlier this month while being held in jail while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges.

In a letter to MIT affiliates, Reif said all the money received from foundations controlled by Epstein had gone to the MIT Media Lab or Professor Seth Lloyd.

Both Lloyd, a mechanical engineering professor at MIT, and Media Lab director Joi Ito posted apologies online for having accepted donations from foundations controlled by Epstein.

“Despite following the processes that have served MIT well for many years, in this instance we made a mistake of judgment,” Reif wrote. “I have asked Provost Marty Schmidt to convene a group to examine the facts around the Epstein donations and identify any lessons for the future.”

Ito, in an apology posted on the lab’s website Aug. 15, said he would raise an amount equivalent to the donations the lab received from foundations controlled by Epstein and “direct those funds to nonprofits that focus on supporting survivors of trafficking.”

Lloyd, in an apology posted Thursday on Medium, said he had received a grant from Epstein’s foundation to support his research and said he had visited Epstein while he was serving a 13-month prison sentence in Florida.

Florida conviction

Epstein was sentenced in Florida after pleading guilty in 2008 to state charges of solicitation of prostitution from a minor.

“I believed, at the time, that I was doing a good deed. Mr. Epstein expressed remorse for his actions and assured me that he would not re-offend,” Lloyd said in his apology, which he addressed to Epstein’s victims. Lloyd said he has “committed financial resources to aid you and other survivors of sexual abuse and trafficking and will work assiduously to help make your voices heard.”

Epstein was being held in jail in New York while awaiting trial on federal charges of sex trafficking underage girls. He had pleaded not guilty.

Employees resign

MIT’s review and the latest apologies came after two Media Lab researchers publicly resigned. One of them, Ethan Zuckerman, said Tuesday in a post on Medium that he would quit as director of the MIT Center for Civic Media because he believed the lab’s dealings with Epstein compromised its values.

Though Epstein’s relationship with the lab predated Ito’s appointment, Ito in his post acknowledged that the two visited each other and that he accepted Epstein as a financial backer in his private investments as well.

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Trump Awards Medal of Freedom to NBA Star Bob Cousy

President Donald Trump presented 91-year-old basketball legend Bob Cousy with the Presidential Medal of Freedom on Thursday, praising the Boston Celtics star as “one of the all-time greats in the history of sports.”

Cousy played for the Celtics from 1950 to 1963, winning six league championships and the 1957 MVP title. The Bob Cousy Award, given to the country’s best point guard in men’s college basketball, is named for him. He is a member of the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame and played a pivotal role in founding the NBA Player’s Association.

After hanging up his No. 14 jersey, the 13-time NBA All-Star went on to coach basketball at Boston College.

“This acknowledgment allows me to complete my life circle,” Cousy said during the Oval Office awards ceremony. “I can stop chasing a bouncing ball. The Presidential Medal of Freedom allows me to reach a level of acceptance in our society I never once ever dreamed of.”

Trump spoke of Cousy’s childhood during the Great Depression and discovering his talent for basketball at a young age. The president said Cousy never forgot his first mentor’s advice to never be predictable, and jokingly added: “Hey, I’ve heard that lesson, too.”

The president recognized Cousy’s achievements on and off the court, lauding his support for underprivileged young athletes and speaking out against racism.

Cousy, who is white, ardently supported his black teammates who faced discrimination during the civil rights movement. Still, Cousy lamented in Gary Pomerantz’s biography “The Last Pass: Cousy, Russell, the Celtics, and What Matters in the End,” that he didn’t do more for his black teammates, including 2011 Medal of Freedom recipient Bill Russell.

The Medal of Freedom, the nation’s highest civilian honor, celebrates individuals for their “especially meritorious contribution to the security or national interests of the U.S., to world peace, or to cultural or other significant public or private endeavors.”

Trump credited West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin for suggesting the medal be given to Cousy.

Previous recipients

Cousy is the second Medal of Freedom recipient this year. Trump presented the award to golfer Tiger Woods in May.

Cousy is the 10th honoree under Trump, who is Cousy’s candidate of choice in the 2020 presidential election.

In a recent interview with NBA.com, Cousy described himself as politically moderate. He said that although he disagrees with some of the president’s actions, he plans to vote for Trump next year.

During the award ceremony, Cousy said the medal was made all the more special because it had been presented by the “most extraordinary” president in his lifetime.

“I know in your world, you’re well on your way to making America great again,” Cousy told the president. “In my world, it’s been great for 91 years. Only in America could my story have been told.”

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As Global Economic Picture Dims, Solutions Seem Out of Reach

As global leaders gather on two continents to take account of a darkening economic outlook, this is the picture they face:

Factories are slumping, many businesses are paralyzed, global growth is sputtering and the world’s two mightiest economies are in the grip of a dangerous trade war.

Barely a year after most of the world’s major countries were enjoying an unusual moment of shared prosperity, the global economy may be at risk of returning to the rut it tumbled into after the financial crisis of 2007-2009.

Worse, solutions seem far from obvious. Central banks can’t just slash interest rates. Rates are already ultra-low. And even if they did, the central banks would risk robbing themselves of the ammunition they would need later to fight a recession. What’s more, high government debts make it politically problematic to cut taxes or pour money into new bridges, roads and other public works projects.

“Our tools for fighting recession are no doubt more limited (than) in the past,” said Karen Dynan, an economist at Harvard University’s Kennedy School.

The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have downgraded the outlook for worldwide growth. On Thursday, Moody’s Investors Service said it expects the global economy to expand 2.7% this year and next — down from 3.2% the previous two years. And it issued a dark warning: Get used to it.

“The new normal will likely continue for the next three to four years,” the credit rating agency said.

Concerns are rising just as central bankers meet in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and leaders of the Group of Seven advanced economies gather this weekend in the resort town of Biarritz in southwestern France. A spotlight will shine, in particular, on whatever message Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sends in a speech Friday in Jackson Hole.

A Grand Teton National Park law enforcement officer stands watch in the lobby outside of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Aug. 24, 2018, at Jackson Lake Lodge.

The dour global outlook partly reflects President Donald Trump’s combative trade conflicts with China and other countries. A realization has taken hold that Trump likely will keep deploying tariffs — and in some cases escalating them — to try to beat concessions out of U.S. trading partners.

“The trade uncertainty is here to stay,” said Madhavi Bokil, senior credit officer at Moody’s.

Squeezed by tightening protectionism, global trade is likely to grow just 2.5% this year, its slowest pace in three years, the IMF says. Manufacturers, whose fortunes are closely tied to trade, are struggling. J.P. Morgan’s global manufacturing index dropped in July for a third straight month, hitting the lowest level since 2012.

The global funk also reflects the pull of gravity: The economies of Europe and Japan, fueled by central banks’ easy-money policies, overexerted themselves a couple of years ago and are now returning to their more typical state: Sluggishness.

The IMF expects China’s economy, the world’s second biggest, to grow 6.2% this year — the weakest since 1990 — and just 6% next year. Trump’s trade war is certainly a factor. The president has imposed tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese imports and is set to tax nearly $300 billion more before year’s end. China’s slowdown is also being orchestrated in part by the officials in Beijing, who are trying to contain lending to control the country’s runaway debts.

And an economic chill in China sends shivers into the many countries — from copper-producing Chile to iron ore-making Australia — that feed Chinese factories with raw materials.

Then there’s Europe. In the 19 countries that use the euro currency, growth slowed to an anemic 0.2% in the second quarter from the quarter before. The eurozone, which maintains close trade ties with the U.S. and China, has been sideswiped by the collision between Trump and President Xi Jinping. What’s more, Trump has threatened to impose significant tariffs on European auto imports.

Even more than the tariffs themselves, uncertainty over whether the trade disputes will be resolved is chilling investment and purchasing. Despite cheap borrowing costs from central bank stimulus, investment in new plants is lagging — an ominous sign that bosses don’t foresee future prosperity. 

In Europe’s usual economic powerhouse, Germany, the economy shrank 0.1% in the second quarter from the quarter before. If output should fall for a second straight quarter, , Germany would find itself on the verge of a recession. 

Some of Germany’s troubles originate closer to home. Its major automakers have been compelled to sink billions into technology to meet stricter emissions tests, and some have endured delays in doing so. BMW lost money on its car business for the first time in a decade in the first quarter. Daimler posted its first net loss since 2009 in the second quarter.  

Brexit is another risk for Europe. Prime Minister Boris Johnson says the UK will leave the 28-country European Union and its free-trade zone on Oct. 31, with or without a divorce deal. Not knowing what will happen is a nagging source of uncertainty.  

Facing such risks, the European Central Bank has signaled that it could launch new monetary stimulus as early as next month. As recently as December, the ECB had been confident enough in the European economy to halt a nearly four-year, $2.6 trillion euro ($2.9 trillion) bond purchase program. That optimism has vanished.

The U.S. economy, now enjoying a record-breaking 10-year expansion, still shows resilience. American consumers, whose spending accounts for 70% of U.S. economic activity, have driven the growth. 

Retail sales have risen sharply so far this year, with people shopping online and spending more at restaurants. Their savings rates are also the highest since 2012, which suggests that consumers aren’t necessarily stretching themselves too thin, according to the Commerce Department.

But Trump’s tariffs loom over the U.S. economy. The import taxes he plans to impose on China on Sept. 1 and again on Dec. 15 are likely to hit ordinary Americans more than the earlier rounds of tariffs. Already, companies are delaying investments because they don’t know where to put new factories, seek suppliers or find customers until they have a better idea where the trade disputes are going. “Uncertainty is high,” said Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management. “Businesses everywhere are sitting on their hands.”

“All forecasts for the U.S. economy in the second half of this year and beyond are contingent on the trade war,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, concluded in a note Thursday.

For all the global gloom, RBC’s Lascelles said policymakers aren’t without options. Even with short-term interest rates near zero, central banks can aggressively buy bonds to pump money into the financial system — the so-called quantitative easing the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of Japan used to revive growth during and after the financial crisis.

And even with the heavy debt burdens, governments could capitalize on low rates to borrow cheaply if they decided to stimulate their economies with tax cuts or stepped-up spending, Lascelles said.

 

 

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Critics of Missouri Abortion Law Sue Over Referendum Failure

Abortion-rights advocates on Thursday sued Missouri’s top election official, alleging his actions and state laws denied them the right to put one of the nation’s most restrictive abortion laws to a public vote. 
 
No Bans on Choice Committee and the American Civil Liberties Union sought to put the law on the 2020 ballot in hopes that voters would overturn it. The measure bans abortions at or after eight weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for medical emergencies but not for rape or incest. 
 
But they ran out of time to gather enough signatures to put the law on hold pending a public vote. It’s slated to take effect Aug. 28. 
 
Attorneys for those who sued put the blame on Republican Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft. They claim Ashcroft dragged his feet in processing the referendum petition, leaving them with only two weeks to gather 100,000 signatures. 
 
ACLU of Missouri Acting Director Tony Rothert said at this point, there’s nothing to do to salvage the referendum effort. Instead, critics of the law want a Cole County judge to rule that petitioners should be allowed to collect signatures earlier in the referendum process, possibly preventing a similar issue from happening again. 

FILE – Jay Ashcroft, the Republican secretary of state in Missouri, answers a question during a convention of state secretaries of state in Philadelphia, July 14, 2018.

 
“We want to make sure that Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft and any future politician is never able to deny Missourians the right to put laws like this abortion ban to a vote,” No Bans on Choice Treasurer Robin Utz said. 
 
A spokesman for the Attorney General’s Office, which defends state laws against court challenges, said state attorneys are currently reviewing the lawsuit. 
 
Ashcroft spokeswoman Maura Browning didn’t immediately comment on the lawsuit, saying the office needs to read it first. But she’s previously said the Secretary of State’s Office “followed the same process we use for every initiative petition and referendum, and has taken an amount of time comparable to any other petition or referendum.”

Critics point out that Ashcroft on June 6 rejected the ACLU’s petition, along with a similar petition backed by wealthy Republican donor David Humphreys, another critic of the law.

He had cited a provision in the Missouri Constitution that prohibits referendums on legislation that has already taken effect. Although most of the law is set to take effect Aug. 28, the Republican-led Legislature voted to make a section of the bill that changed parental consent laws for minors seeking abortions take effect immediately.

But the ACLU sued against Ashcroft’s decision, and ultimately won. 
 
Browning has said the ACLU could have saved time by filing the petition 11 days earlier, after the Legislature passed the bill. The ACLU waited until Republican Gov. Mike Parson signed it May 24.

“It’s now been adjudicated that he broke the law,” Acting ACLU of Missouri Director Tony Rothert said of Ashcroft’s action, “and he’s trying to weasel out of responsibility for that.”

In the lawsuit, attorneys for those who sued also alleged that Missouri laws impede citizens’ right to referendum. That’s because for referendums, state law prohibits petitioners from collecting signatures until a ballot title is certified. 
 
“State officials can prevent a referendum on a favored piece of legislation simply by using all of their statutorily allotted time to complete their administrative tasks and thereby delaying certification of a ballot title for 51 days after a proposed referendum petition is submitted,” the lawsuit alleged.

Karisa Gilman-Hernandez told reporters Thursday that she and thousands of other volunteers for No Bans on Choice spent money on training to collect voter signatures and had planned to be ready at a moment’s notice to begin the effort. 
 
NARAL Pro-Choice Missouri Executive Director Mallory Schwarz said abortion-rights advocates are now redirecting resources toward registering voters in advance of the 2020 elections. Both Parson and Ashcroft are up for re-election. 

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Somalia Regional Lawmakers Re-elect Incumbent as Leader Amid Tensions

Lawmakers in Somalia’s regional state of Jubbaland have re-elected incumbent Ahmed Mohamed Islam as the leader in a controversial election held in the southern port town of Kismayo, the region’s largest.

Popularly known as Madobe, the former Islamist leader secured 56 of 73 votes in a first round Thursday, defeating three other candidates. His closest challenger, Anab Mohamed Darir, received 17 votes. Madobe was immediately sworn into office for the next four years.

“Although I have got a small number in votes, I consider it as a success because this could encourage women to run for elections and show that they want their representation in the country’s man-dominated politics,” Darir told VOA Somali. She was the only woman to run for the office.

Madobe campaigned on a pledge to promote regional economic growth and fight al-Shabab militants who still control a large portion of the region. He is also a top security partner with Kenya, which helps Somalia fight al-Shabab and has a strong presence in Kismayo.

Those opposing Madobe’s rule formed a separate electoral commission and elected a rival parliament and president, Abdirashib Hidig, on Thursday. Their move has raised fears of violence and a lack of stability in a region already suffering from attacks and the heavy presence of al-Shabab.

A member of parliament of Somaliaís Jubaland state casts her vote during the presidential election held in Kismayo, on Aug. 22, 2019.

Prior to the regional vote, Somalia’s federal government said it would not recognize the results of elections that came through what it described as an “illegal process.”

“The government will not recognize any election marred by lack of transparency,” Somalia’s interior minister, Abdi Mohamed Sabriye, told VOA Somali. But there was no immediate reaction from the government to Thursday’s election result. 

Sheikh Mohamed Ibrahim Shakul, who recently gave up his candidacy, was disappointed with the result.

“It was unfortunate that Jubbaland has two parliaments and two presidents each claiming legitimacy.” Shakul said.

Outside interference 

The process in which Madobe was re-elected Thursday was marred by threats, intimidation, violence and accusations of outside interference. It also sparked tensions with neighboring Kenya and Ethiopia.

In the days prior to the vote, senior Ethiopian officials traveled to Kismayo to try to persuade Madobe to hold a free and fair election with the support of the federal government of Somalia. 

The visit came as the United Nations political office in Somalia called on authorities to address concerns about the election process.

In response, Kenya called on the U.N. office to withdraw its statement. 

Like Kenya, Ethiopia has a large peacekeeping contingent in Somalia. 

Jubbaland forces stand with their ammunitions as they prepare for a security patrol against Islamist al Shabaab militants in Bulagaduud town, north of Kismayo, Somalia, Aug. 17, 2015.

Kenya has been supporting Madobe because it sees the Kismayo region as a buffer zone against Islamist attacks inside Kenya. Meanwhile, Ethiopia is close to the federal government in Mogadishu, which is not happy with Madobe’s return.

In his first briefing to the world body since taking office, James Swan, head of the U.N. mission in Somalia (UNSOM), told the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday that despite “encouraging” developments in Somalia, insecurity remains a serious issue.

Swan’s more immediate concern was the regional election in Jubbaland.

“We continue to urge a single, agreed, consensual electoral process, without which there is an increased risk of instability if there is a contested outcome,” Swan said.

He also said such a controversial election could not only put progress made in Jubbaland in jeopardy, but also potentially undermine national priorities, including preparations for national elections in 2020, the fight against al-Shabab and the country’s development agenda.

In Somalia’s clan-based power-sharing politics, analysts predict such political rifts and contested outcomes could push some communities, mainly minority groups, to join al-Shabab.

Somalia has a history of clan rivalries and unstable governments, dating to the country’s independence in 1960. 

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Haiti’s President Survives Impeachment Vote

Matiado Vilme in Port-au-Prince contributed to this report

WASHINGTON/PORT-AU-PRINCE, HAITI – Haiti’s President Jovenel Moise has survived an impeachment vote in parliament, ending a weekslong push by opposition parties to unseat him over corruption and other criminal allegations.

In a marathon session that began late Wednesday and ended in the early hours of Thursday, the president survived when 53 of the 61 lawmakers present voted the impeachment mesure down. Three deputies who were present voted for impeachment, and five others abstained. The remaining 58 lawmakers out of the 119-member body were not present, however the vote proceeded according to the country’s parliamentary system.

The president has not yet publicly commented on the decision.

Opposition deputies have accused Moise of numerous constitutional violations. Among them — naming unqualified citizens to cabinet positions and signing contracts with foreign companies not approved by the government institution that oversees such matters.

The opposition’s insistence on prioritizing the impeachment vote before dealing with any other matters before the chamber held up a vote on the nominated prime minister, Fritz William Michel. Haiti has been without a prime minister since March, when Jean Henry Ceant was forced to resign after a no confidence vote.

Lawmaker Jean Marcel Lumérant speaks in favor of starting impeachment proceedings against Haitian President Jovenel Moise, as lawmakers debate in Parliament in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Wednesday, Aug. 21, 2019.

VOA Creole spoke to Deputy Gary Bodeau, president of the Chamber of Deputies, shortly after the marathon session ended.

“I’m not thrilled, because this is not how I wanted the debate to proceed,” Bodeau said. “There are arguments I read in the impeachment indictment that seemed to have merit. Unfortunately, the deputies did not remain in the chamber to debate the accusation, and that’s why the session ended. It’s very unfortunate.”

Majority PHTK Party deputy, Moise Michel, told VOA he was satisfied with the outcome.

“This is the only democracy where the minority group tries to lay down the law. In all other democracies (of the world), it’s the majority party that does that. Whether or not they agree, the debate happened. We respected their constitutional right to ask for an impeachment vote, and you saw how they tried to block and obstruct the vote so it wouldn’t happen,” Michel told VOA.

Protesters camped out in front of Haiti’s parliament before the deputies arrived for the impeachment vote. The sign reads: “Haiti is not for sale. Catch the Thieves”, Aug. 21, 2019.

Ahead of the impeachment vote, protesters had camped out in front of the parliament building holding signs that read, “Haiti is Not for Sale, Lock Up the Thieves.” Protesters also told VOA they wanted Bodeau to “watch it. We’re not playing.” Protesters said they would be waiting until the early hours of the morning if necessary to see how they would vote.

“Everything must happen where the people can see (with transparency),” a female protester told VOA, “because we the people voted them in.”

Bodeau told VOA he was considering opening up a dialogue with members of the opposition as early as Thursday. He said the next order of business would be examining the prime minister nominee’s dossier.

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Two Years After Brutal Crackdown, Myanmar’s Rohingyas See Bleak Future Ahead

Some 700,000 ethnic Rohingyas have fled Myanmar for Bangladesh following a brutal military crackdown that began in August 2017 in northwest Rakhine state.  But for the more than 120,000 Rohingya who remained in Myanmar, life is grim and many fear for their future. Myanmar’s government says wants to close the camps for these internally displaced Rohingya but they will not be allowed to return to the homes they had fled.  From reporting done in Myanmar’s Rakhine state, VOA has this report narrated by Katherine Gypson.

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Australia Sees Rush of Hong Kong Millionaires

Australia is seeing an increase in interest in its millionaires-only visa program from wealthy Hong Kong residents who are eyeing a safety net amid political turmoil in the Chinese-ruled territory, migration lawyers told Reuters.

The New South Wales state migration department “has noticed a significant increase in applications” from Hong Kong in recent months, it said in a letter to agents this week, and seen by Reuters.

The interest has coincided with the “beginning of the current unrest in Hong Kong,” the department said, referring to a A$5 million ($3.4 million) Significant Investor Visa (SIV) program that provides direct residency to applicants.

An alternative plan

Bill Fuggle, Sydney-based partner at law firm Baker & McKenzie, said there had been a rise in applicants for the A$5 million SIV program.

“What I am hearing from my clients is there definitely has been an uptick in the number of SIV applications from Hong Kong,” Fuggle said. “Anybody who can make an alternate plan is trying to do so.”

Protests in the former British colony erupted in early June over a now-suspended bill that would have allowed criminal suspects to be extradited to mainland China for trial.

The unrest has been fueled by broader worries about what many say has been an erosion of freedoms guaranteed under the “one country, two systems” formula put in place when Hong Kong returned to China in 1997.

SIV program

Australia’s New South Wales treasury department confirmed that the immigration team’s letter was sent out to migration agents Monday but declined to provide any further details, saying only that the increase was off a small base.

In the letter, the department assured agents it was committed to providing “appropriate support” to help them discuss migration options with their clients.

The SIV program used to be hugely popular with people from China, though recent strict investment requirements have somewhat dented its appeal. The SIV now requires at least 40 percent of the A$5 million to be invested in small-cap and venture capital (VC) funds while direct real estate investment is barred.

“Money is also moving out but Australia is probably not your first choice to park wealth … it’s a high tax jurisdiction. I suspect we’ll get more people than money here,” Baker & McKenzie’s Fuggle said.

Data on applications received or visas granted in recent months was not available as Australia publishes these figures only annually.

According to the latest data, China accounted for 87% of the 2,022 SIV visas granted between November 2012 and June 2018 while Hong Kong stood a distant second at just 3.2%.

Juwai.com, China’s largest international property website, had seen “some increase” in demand for Sydney property by Hong Kong buyers since the unrest began, Executive Chairman Georg Chmiel told Reuters in an email.

“Purchasing real estate is not the first step in coming to this country. More important is to obtain legal residency,” Chmiel said. “Over the next two to five years, there could be a substantial impact on the property market as these individuals look to settle down and purchase, but for now, it is too early for that.”

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Fallout Swift for Planned Parenthood After Quitting Program

Planned Parenthood clinics in several states are charging new fees, tapping into financial reserves, intensifying fundraising and warning of more unintended pregnancies and sexually transmitted diseases in the wake of its decision to quit a $260 million federal family planning program in a dispute with the Trump administration over abortion.

The fallout is especially intense in Utah, where Planned Parenthood has been the only provider participating in the nearly 50-year-old Title X program, and will now lose about $2 million yearly in federal funds that helped serve 39,000 mostly low-income, uninsured people. It intends to maintain its services, which include contraception, STD testing and cancer screening, but is considering charging a small copay for patients who used to get care for free.

Planned Parenthood in Minnesota is in a similar situation, serving about 90% of the state’s Title X patients, and plans to start charging fees thanks to the loss of $2.6 million in annual funding.

The organization is concerned about the spread of unintended pregnancies and sexually transmitted diseases.

“We believe there will be a public health crisis created by this denial of care,” said Sarah Stoesz, the Minnesota-based president of Planned Parenthood North Central States. “It’s a very sad day for the country.”

New rule prompts providers to withdraw 

Planned Parenthood and several other providers withdrew from the program earlier this week rather than comply with a newly implemented rule prohibiting participating clinics from referring women for abortions. Anti-abortion activists who form a key part of President Donald Trump’s base have been campaigning to “defund Planned Parenthood” because, among its varied services, it is an abortion provider, and they viewed the grants as an indirect subsidy.

About 4 million women are served nationwide by the Title X program, which makes up a much bigger portion of Planned Parenthood’s patients than abortion. But the organization said it could not abide by the abortion-referral rules because it says they would make it impossible for doctors to do their jobs.

Family planning

Mindy Dotson, a single mother in Utah, is among the women who use the family planning program. She started going to Planned Parenthood as doctors’ bills for treating recurring yeast infections mounted. The services became even more important when she gave up her employer-sponsored health insurance because she couldn’t afford the $500 monthly bill.

She is unsure what she’d do if the services stopped.

“It would put me in a very dangerous position,” said Dotson, who works as an executive assistant for an accounting and consulting firm. “It covers so many things: STD testing, emergency contraception, birth control, lifesaving cancer screenings … you name it, they have treated me for it.”

‘Pain on all sides’

Planned Parenthood says it’s dedicated to maintaining its current services in Utah, but CEO Karrie Galloway acknowledged it won’t be easy and could cause some “pain on all sides.”

She said the organization plans to lean heavily on donors to make up the funding gap while staff members assess how they’ll cope. Among the possibilities are instituting copays of $10-$15 per visit, shortening hours and trimming spending. She doesn’t plan to lay off staff, but said she may not be able to fill jobs when people leave or retire.

Minnesota is planning fees as well.

“We’ll continue to offer all services, and keep clinic doors open, but we’ll be charging patients on a sliding scale who we didn’t charge before,” Stoesz said. “Vulnerable people who previously were able to access birth control and STD testing for free will no longer be able to do so.”

State by state

Elsewhere, the impact of Planned Parenthood’s withdrawal will vary from state to state.

Governments in some states, including Hawaii, Illinois, New York and Vermont, say they will try to replace at least some of the lost federal funding. In the Deep South there will be little impact because Planned Parenthood did not provide Title X services in most of the region’s states.

The chief operating officer for Planned Parenthood of the Greater Northwest and Hawaiian Islands, Rebecca Gibron, said Southern Idaho could be hit hard by the changes, with other health care providers in the area saying they can’t fill the gap if the roughly 1,000 low-income women served by Planned Parenthood in Twin Falls are no longer able to receive care.

“This was not money that can simply be made up by raising dollars from donors,” Gibron said. “We have rent to pay, we have staff salaries … there are limits to what we are able to do in terms of providing free care without the Title X program.”

Gibron said Planned Parenthood is working with Washington state officials in hopes of securing “bridge funding” to keep operating more than 20 Title X clinics serving roughly 90,000 people.

“We’re going to do everything we can to provide care for patients in the same way, but we know that it’s not sustainable and we’re looking at all of our options,” she said.

Others leave program, too

Among other providers withdrawing from Title X is Maine Family Planning, which oversees a network that serves about 23,000 patients per year and will be losing $1.8 million in annual funding. Its CEO, George Hill, said the organization will rely on reserves and intensify fundraising efforts to bridge the gap while seeking more aid from the state.

In anticipation of the changes, Democrats in neighboring New Hampshire added about $3.2 million in the state budget they passed earlier this year to make up for the federal funding. But that’s on hold after Republican Gov. Chris Sununu vetoed the budget in June for other reasons.

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